Essay 1. |

<body topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 marginheight=0 marginwidth=0><script> (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga'); ga('create', 'UA-47423994-1', 'fortunecity.ws'); ga('send', 'pageview'); </script> <center> <br> <div> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript" src="http://ad.broadcaststation.net/ads/show_ad.php?width=728&height=90"></script> </div> </center> <table cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0 border=0 height="100%"><tr> <td valign="top" BGCOLOR="#CCCCE4" TEXT="#080000"> <div> <FONT SIZE="5" COLOR="#CC3300" FACE="Arial" ><B>The Geog Shop</B></FONT>     </div> <div> <B> </B><A HREF="index.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="The Geog Shop"><U><B>home</B></U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="id17.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Meet The Creator"><U>Meet the Creator   |</U></A> <A HREF="id18.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="News and Events"><U> News and Events </U></A> |  <A HREF="id19.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Projects"><U> Projects</U></A>  |  <A HREF="id20.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Weather"><U> Weather </U></A>  | <A HREF="id21.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Essays"><U>  Essays </U></A> |  <A HREF="id22.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Related Links"><U> Related Links </U></A> |  <A HREF="id23.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Contact Me"><U> Contact me </U></A> |</div> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="04558020.gif" border=0 width="600" height="2" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> Essay 1. 2001</div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> Essay by Ian J. Morton</div> <div> Predicted climate change will have little impact on the frequency and intensity of geomorphological hazards. Discuss with reference to High mountain environments in Europe.</div> <div> Predicted climate change and the impact on high mountain environments in Europe.</div> <bR> <div> This essay will explore the effects of climate change and on the temporal morphology of high mountain environments in Europe. It will examine the growing threat of geomorphological hazards in these areas and will conclude with the impact that these hazards will have on the environment.</div> <bR> <bR> <div>      The effect of any changes in the climate will have an affect on the topography of mountain environments to some degree. The exposure of the topography to attack from environmental conditions results in topographic degradation. Topographic exposure (TOPEX), is where the mountain structure is exposed to climatic conditions and through the expected changes in the climate the exposure and rate of degradation is likely to increase. The bigger the change the more environmental transformation will occur. For a transformation to occur over a long period of time, say 1000 years, the changes would not be noticeable except by historical data collection and comparison techniques, the difference between then and now. A rapid change in the climate would produce an affect in the environment over a shorter time period. This would be more noticeable when the changes are within living memory and may become hazardous. It is the TOPEX of an area combined with climatic conditions that produces stresses on the topography over short time periods that produce the resultant conditions that a stress or series of stress factors will manifest into a hazard.  </div> <bR> <div>      A mountain region has over time gone through a changing process. This changing process, denudation, is where the rock brakes down from the mountain mass and is a process of three factors, weathering, mass wasting and erosion (Briggs, D., Smithson, P., Addison K., Atkinson, K., The Physical Environment, 2nd edition, 1998, Routledge, London, p 211.). Weathering is subdivided into three processes, physical and biological and chemical. In high mountain environments weathering of all divisions take place and act in conjunction with gravity to erode the rock. The erosion from the top of the glaciated mountain down to the base level is what produces the skeletal material that eventually forms soil and alluvial sediments. From the effects of climatic factors such as wind, precipitation, freeze-thaw and chemical and biological actions the mountain form is constantly changing. </div> <bR> <div>      The high mountain regions that are caped by glaciation protects the underlying rock from climatic weathering and only the rock debris of the moraine at the ice margin are subjected to climatic weathering. However, European glaciers, by there very nature, erode the surrounding rock by abrasion, plucking, freeze-thaw and melt-water (Beniston, M,. Environmental Change in Mountains and Uplands, 2000, Arnold, London, p 28, 29). Of course it could be argued that the glacier is a product of climatic conditions and that the glacier participates in the breakdown of rock material, but then it is not an action of climatic weathering as mentioned previously. However, the action of glaciation advancement and retreat is and the changes in climate are important to the changing glaciers and in-turn to the geomorphology of these mountain areas. </div> <div>  <A NAME="climate_2"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <B>Climate </B></div> <div>      The global climate change prediction is that the temperature will rise by several degrees Centigrade over the next 5 decades (Goudie, A., The Nature of the Environment, 3rd edition, 1996, Blackwell, Cambridge, Massachusetts, p222). <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#990000" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="#climate" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><U>Global changes in climate over 400 years, chart.</U></U></A></FONT> The climate changes of the mountain environments may reflect that of the global conditions but the effects on the production of geomorphological hazards may be more severe than would generally be anticipated. Because of the variances of the  European mountain climate from that of the continental, maritime and Mediterranean as a whole and the changes within  the mountain range; aspects of denudation will become more frequent. The receding  glaciers expose more rock to weathering both physical and chemical and through the rise in temperature the biota levels of the mountain slope will gain altitude bringing biological action to rock material previously protected by glaciation that had previously only been exposed to freeze thaw actions. With the rise in temperature this would raise the snow line to higher altitudes, increasing approximately 150m in altitude for every 1oC, (Beniston, 2000, p106). The glaciation cover also protects the underlying rock from frost action and when this recedes permafrost is likely to form (Beniston, 2000 p29). The present permafrost would be subjected to rising temperatures and this would increase the depth of the active layer on higher slopes and melt the permafrost layer at lower levels. With the rise in temperature the atmosphere will be able to hold a higher concentration of moisture and this would raise the dew point. When the molecules at dew point are taken over by gravity the higher volumes of precipitation will occur. This will render higher levels of snow fall above the snow line and an increase in rain fall below the snow line. This is of course an ideal situation in general. In the mountain environments the effects that temperature will have on these areas in relation to global conditions are very difficult to predict with any real accuracy (Beniston, 2000, p99-100).  The mountain regions have characteristic climates that is intrinsic to that land form. With a global average rise of 10 this can manifest to an increase of several degrees in local areas. </div> <bR> <div> <B>Changes in denudation</B></div> <div>      For the past few thousand years the European mountain ranges have been at a steady and predictable rate of deterioration. The stability of the ranges has meant that humans have been active in the construction of creating a habitat that relative safety was not compromised. This can be seen from the many towns, roads and high mountain constructions that have been built in the past. The roads go over, between, through and around the mountain masses not posing much hazard awareness from rock-falls, landslips and flows. The main hazard has come from avalanches, but as the danger from which are increasing in number of reported instances. The changes in climate will produce variability in the snow fall as mentioned previously. This together with the higher snow falls will create greater hazard occurrences. Danger from snow avalanches comes from the slope angles where 30-450 is the optimum angle.  </div> <bR> <div>      The production of hazards due to climate change are only understood through the anomalies in the present understanding of scientific methodology. Taking what is known to produce a hazard and what is thought to produce a hazard leads to the development of models, if it was known, there would be no need for models. These models try to interpret the physical world and produce a result based on the stresses that have been measured and calculated based on present knowledge of a given situation. The problem with modeling the hazard occurrences is the effects that climate change will have on European mountain environments. The effects of various climatic attributes such as rain, wind, heat, cold and frost on the production of movements has an important role in rock weathering and erosion process over time (Dikau, R., et al, Landslide Recognition, Wiley, Essex, 1996, p32,33). The effects of this can only be taken from other areas of the earth and estimated at how they will be manifested in mountain areas when expected changes in the climate occur. Through the study and understanding of trigger mechanisms can a cause for a  hazard be predicted. In a study of debris flows in the Swiss Alps extreme precipitation over a number of days has been noted as the triggering factor (Beniston, 2000 p109). The expected changes in the climate is for a rise in temperature which it is expected from climate model simulations will bring a higher level of precipitation to the mountain areas to the levels that trigger debris flows (Beniston <I>et al</I> 1995).</div> <bR> <div> <B>Rock weathering </B></div> <div>      The breakdown of rock is the beginning stage of the production of soils, but rock fragments, talus, are themselves not soils. Part of this breakdown is the variance and rate at which the rock disintegrates. Higher temperatures and higher moisture content produce more skeletal material in comparison to dryer and colder conditions. The very production process is the overall key to some types of hazards. In light of higher temperatures and higher precipitation over the mountain regions (Beniston, 2000, 109), the production process and breakdown of rock will undoubtedly be increased. The impact that this will have on the region could pose and probably will pose at some time, a danger to the low lying settlements in the valleys through rock flows and slides.    </div> <bR> <div>      The activities of rock when subjected to changing temperatures aid in the break down and increase the stress of the surrounding ground. Rock expands when warm and contracts when cold (Ollier, C., Weathering, 2nd edition, Longman, London, 1984, p17 - 20). The penetration of the temperature into the rock produces a variant temperature plane between the warm outer surface and colder inner deeper part of the rock. The result of this is that the surface layer breaks away from the inner area (Birot, P. The Cycle of Erosion in Different Climates, Batsford, London, 1968, p16,17), (Ollier, C, 1984, p18), This condition is increased when the temperature variance is higher and explains why weathering in different climatic conditions can be widely divergent ( Ollier, 1984, p233). The rate that rock breaks down depends on the type of material and the climatic conditions.  A study of denudation rates was conducted by J. B. Field, of three types of rock in Australia. He found that Granite  lost 1.39 - 4.5mm per year, Basalt lost 3.92 - 14.4mm per year, the study was conducted over two years of specific small area catchments (Ollier, C., 1984, p209). In comparison to this Australian study a study has also been conducted of the Austrian and Swiss Alps. </div> <bR> <div>      From studies conducted by F. Bauer in 1964, for the Austrian Alps, and Bogli, 1961, for the Swiss Alps. It was found that in both cases the rate was between 9 and 12.5mm per 1000 years on bare limestone due to weathering. Taking the biological aspect of denudation the loss in rock surface was found to be 28mm per 1000 years. The rate that rock deteriorates at is not fixed for any time or place. The rates from a few mm over a thousand years to a few centimeters per year as in Australia or several centimeters per year in other parts of the world, England southern Scotland and Ireland. The rates of denudation vary from climate to climate and that higher water and moisture content and higher temperatures cause the highest rates of denudation for any type of material to occur. It is not merely the highest and lowest temperature and moisture content but the length of time in any continuous period. The rate of denudation for parts of England are high and that the nature of the climate has a steady mean average temperature with a high atmospheric moisture content.</div> <bR> <div> <B>Production of hazards</B></div> <div>      Natural hazards are divided into two sections, physical and biological. This essay is only concerned with the physical manifestation of hazards. Put simply, hazards are the result of some extreme event that has an effect on the people or their environment in such a way that harm or prevention prevents a continuity from daily life. They range from storms, volcanic, seismic, landslides, tsunami through to severe frost, heat-wave and drought. In Europe, the high mountain regions provide hazards from avalanches, rock slides and flows. . </div> <bR> <div>      The higher  temperatures and precipitation that is expected form climate change on mountain environments in Europe (Beniston, 2000, p109), would increase the denudation rate, the production of loose material that would lead to slope failure, debris flows, slides and avalanches, of both rock and snow.  The number of settlements in the valleys are numerous and this would increase the risk of a hazard occurring. The mountain regions of Europe have in the past had a generous covering of snow for the winter months. Over the past decade this snow accumulation has been getting less at a constant rate of the mean snow fall. The exposure of the underlying surface is now open to longer periods of weathering than it has had. The increase of freeze-thaw and run-off increases the breakdown of rock. The increased rate of denudation on the higher slopes have a consequence at lower levels which also has longer periods of weathering from chemical, freeze-thaw, run-off and biological. The morphology of the mountain regions as a result of this climate change pose a real danger to the area from the increased</div> <div> production of hazards. </div> <bR> <div>      In the mountain regions of Europe the largest hazard is from mass movement (Smith, K., Environmental Hazards, 3rd edition, Routledge, London, 1991, p180 - 181). These areas are susceptible to landslides of all classification ( Varnes, D. J., Slope Movements and types and processes, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 1978).   From the changes in the solidity of the mountain environments coming from higher temperatures and higher precipitation that leads to increasing destruction of rock through chemical and biological methods and climatic weathering, the rate of degradation would increase. With the reduction and destabilising of the permafrost layers the bonding effect of the surface, through stress, strength and friction, that is created will be reduced. The expected increase in rain-fall and hence run off will produce a triggering mechanism for acting in the failure of slopes. The depth that thawing reaches in the permafrost layer will produce a shear plane between the thawed and unthawed layers. The annual active layer which over time has been established in conjunction with the overall climatic effects on the mountain regions is in a stable condition and therefore any changes to this, like the higher level of rain fall, would upset the steady state. The saturation of the thawed ground and the marginal zone, the frost table, would result in a disruption of the bonding, friction and cohesion, between the active layer and the underlying permafrost. Over time the depth of the active layer will increase in the lower altitudes until the permafrost has been depleted ( French, H. M., The Periglacial Environment, Longman, Essex, 1996, p161)<FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#990000" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="#permafrost" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U>.</U></A><A HREF="#permafrost" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><U>Permafrost temperature rise.</U></U></A><A HREF="#permafrost" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U> </U></A></FONT> This type of hazard tends to be shallow as the depth of the active layer is shallow.</div> <div>   <A NAME="permafrost_2"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div>      Slope failure is conducive with weathering and mass wasting by degrading and undermining the foundation and stability of a slope or rock face topple. Where the slope angle is steep the potential energy release from movement is greater and talus accumulation and creep will over time produce a slide or flow depending on the triggering mechanism. Climate change effects on the occurrence of hazards will become more frequent and severe until a new equilibrium between slope stability and denudation has been reached. The balance between the production of material build-up and stress strength and slope angle produces an equilibrium between the stable conditions and movement for a time. Where this balance is compromised (table 1), the forces that have built up are released and a stable condition is then achieved in the cycle. </div> <bR> <div> <B><U>Table 1.</U></B></div> <div> (1). Changes in slope angle, perhaps caused by lower slope failure, or angle increase by deposition. </div> <div> (2). Shear plane friction failure. </div> <div> (3). Mass movement from higher slopes. </div> <div> (4). Vibration. </div> <div> (5). Water saturation and water flow.  </div> <div> (6). Permafrost thaw</div> <bR> <div>      The angle of slope regarding the potential for flows and topples are most important. If the slope angle is not sufficiently critical a flow or topple would not result in such a serious hazard (Dikau, R., et al, 1996, p153-156). Because of the potential energy reserved in the forces of the rock and  that the forces of gravity acting on the rock increase the magnitude of the hazard a shallow slope angle would greatly reduce the potential energy by the absorption of the rock by the ground surface. Given that the slope angles in the European mountain areas, mainly the Alps, are of critical value with steep angles and therefore are conducive to the production of high energy flows. With this critical slope angle the potential for increased incidents of flows and topples given that the rate of weathering is concurrent with the rate of denudation in relation to changing climatic conditions the production of hazards in these areas would result in fatal conditions. </div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >     The instability of slopes are not singly due to slope angle and shear strength relationship. The key factor in the slope failure is from some extrinsic variable, or intrinsic regarding permafrost thaw, that undermines the friction cohesion plane. If the relationship was purely down to angle and instability the occurrence of movement could be plotted on x,y, correlation diagrams and where the coefficient, Rxy,   for the data would indicate a relationship exists, however, from studies this has not been  found to be the case (Harris, C., Periglacial Mass-Wasting: A Review of Research, Geo Abstracts, Norwich, 1981, pp123-125). The relative stability of high mountain regions therefore become unstable due to variable factors associated with climatic conditions that vary from the mean annual climatic conditions of an area. These variances from yearly climatic conditions, that is, much higher or lower precipitation or and temperature changes, disturb the equilibrium of the environment and cause movement</FONT>.<A HREF="#_rock" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U> </U></A><A HREF="#_rock" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><U>Link to such a movement in Switzerland.</U></U></A><A HREF="#_rock" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U> </U></A><A HREF="#_rock" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U> </U></A></div> <div>    <A NAME="rock_2"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div>      Hazards coming from permafrost thawing include debris flows, avalanches, rock-fall, talus creep and gelifluction. The speed and power vary between hazard types from extremely fast to extremely slow. The settlements situated throughout the European Alps are formed at the flat planes of the valleys and on the lower slopes. The speed that some flows and slides travel at would not give a window for evacuation from the area before the hazard struck. With the effects of climate change that is likely to happen in these mountain regions and what this means to rock weathering, erosion and wasting, as has been explained previously, the likelihood that fatal hazards are most probable to happen over the next decade become increasingly possible. A research study has been put into action by the European Union, Permafrost and Climate in Europe, (PACE), to discover the implications of what the effect changing climate will have on the mountain regions in Europe (Web ref 1). It has noted several built structures that are in danger areas, namely that of cable car stations. Temporary measures are being put into action to secure these stations from falling as the underlying permafrost is melting, but in time all stations will have to be rebuilt at other locations where the ground is more stable. One such settlement that has been marked as very dangerous is Pontresina, Switzerland,  the immediate area is vulnerable to rock-falls due to melting permafrost on the slopes above. Through the practice of hazard mitigation the construction of a 13 meter high wall will be built to protect the settlement. (Web ref 2). </div> <bR> <div> <B>Conclusion</B></div> <div>      Geomorphology of the European high mountain areas has been studied to some degree (Beniston, 2000), (French, 1996), (Smith,1991), (Varnes, 1978), (Ollier, 1984), (Harris, 1981, 2001).  By the break down of rock from weathering, mass wasting and erosion and how different climates of the world produce variance in temporal morphology the effects of climate change in the mountain environments can be ascertained. By the study and understanding of the effects of denudation in relation to the changes in morphology and the increase of hazardous events in these areas that is due to climatic changes the impact on these areas will be significant.</div> <bR> <bR> <div>   </div> <bR> <div> <I><B><U>References</U></B></I></div> <bR> <div> <I><B>Bibliography</B></I></div> <bR> <div> Beniston, M.,                   <B><U>Environmental Change in Mountains and Uplands,</U></B> Arnold, London, 2000, <B>pp1-148</B>,</div> <div> Goudie, A.,                      <B><U>The Nature of The Environment, Third edition,</U></B> Blackwell, Oxford, 1996, pp189-202,        </div> <div>                                         274-308, <B>pp222</B></div> <bR> <div> Briggs, D., Smithson, P., Addison, K., Atkinson, K., </div> <div> <B>                                       </B><B><U>Fundamentals of the Physical Environment, second edition, </U></B>Routledge, London, 1998, </div> <div>                                         pp172-191, 211-233, 440-461, <B>pp211 </B></div> <div> Smith, K.,                        <B><U>Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk And Reducing Disaster, 3</U></B><B><U>rd </U></B><B><U> edition. </U></B> Routledge,</div> <div>                                         London, 1991,  pp180 - 208, <B>p180, 181,</B> </div> <div> Hewitt, K.,                      <B><U>Regions Of Risk: A Geographical Introduction To Disasters,</U></B> Longman, Essex, p97, </div> <div>                                        pp 210-265, <B>pp210, 212, 238, 240,</B> </div> <div> Ollier, C.,                        <B><U>Weathering, second edition,</U></B> Longman, London, 1984, pp1 - 30, 52 -69, 121 - 147,<B> </B></div> <div> <B>                                       pp17-20, 209, 233</B></div> <div> French, H. M.,                <B><U>The Periglacial Environment, 2</U></B><B><U>nd</U></B><B><U> edition,</U></B> Longman, Essex, 1996,<B> pp160,161</B></div> <bR> <div> Dikau, R., Brunsden, D., Schrott, L., Ibsen, M. L., (Editors), </div> <div>                                        <B><U>Landslide Reconstruction: Identification, Movement and Causes,</U></B><U> </U>John Wiley, Chichester, </div> <div>                                        1996, pp149-187, <B>pp32, 33, 153-156 </B></div> <div> Biro, P.,                           <B><U>The cycle of Erosion in Different Climates</U></B>, B. T. Batsford, London, 1968, pp14-26, </div> <div> <B>                                       pp16,17 </B></div> <div> Harris, C.,                       <B><U>Periglacial Mass-Wasting: A Review of Research,</U></B> Geo Abstracts, British Geomorphological </div> <div>                                        Research group, Norwich, 1981, pp1-8, 100-122, <B>123-125. </B>  </div> <div> Colbeck, S, C.,(edited),  <B><U>Dynamics of Snow and Ice Masses,</U></B> Academic Press, London,1980, pp127-135, </div> <div>                                        305-318, 397 457</div> <div>  </div> <div> Colman, S, M., Dethier, D, P.,(editors)</div> <div>                                        <B><U>Rates of Chemical Weathering of Rocks and Minerals,</U></B> Academic Press, London, 1986, </div> <div>                                        pp 1-15, 21-39, 193-227. </div> <div> Theakstone, W.H., Harrison, C.,</div> <div>                                        <B><U>The Analysis of Geographical Data,</U></B> Heinemann, London, 1971. </div> <div> Varnes, D. J.,                  <B><U>Slope movements and types and processes. Landslides: Analysis and Control. </U></B> </div> <div>                                        Transportation Research Board, Special Report 176, National Academy of Sciences,  Washington, </div> <div>                                        1978</div> <div>                     </div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <I><B>Other Sources of Reference</B></I></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >Web ref 1 link     </FONT> <A HREF="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/"><U><U>http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/</U></U></A></div> <bR> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >Web ref 2 link  </FONT> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#FF9900" FACE="Times New Roman" > <A HREF="http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/default.stm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/default.stm"><U><U>http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/default.stm</U></U></A></FONT></div> <bR> <div> Baker, V. R.,     <B><U>The Nature of Geomorphology,</U></B>  <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#FF9900" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="http://www.daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/DAAC_DOCS/geomorphology/GEO_1/GEO_CHAPTER%20_1.HTML" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/DAAC_DOCS/"><U><U>http://www.daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/DAAC_DOCS/geomorphology/GEO_1/GEO_CHAPTER _1.HTML</U></U></A> </FONT></div> <bR> <div>                        Link to PACE study on permafrost distribution and energy balance.</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >                     </FONT> <A HREF="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp"><U><U>http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html</U></U></A></div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <U> <A NAME="other_web_sites_that_were_used_in_the"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></U><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#FF9900" FACE="Times New Roman" ><A HREF="#back" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><U>Other web sites that were used in the essay     </U></U></A></FONT></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div> <IMG SRC="04558020.gif" border=0 width="600" height="2" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="climate"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <IMG SRC="050654b0.jpg" border=0 width="357" height="331" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <div> <B>(Mann, Bradley, Hughes.  1998.)</B></div> <div> <A HREF="#climate_2" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U>Back</U></A>                       </div> <div> Relationship of Northern hemisphere mean (NH) temperature with 3 candidate forcings between 1610 and 1995. (i) reconstructed NH temperature series from 1610-1980 update with raw data from 1981-1995. </div> <div> (i) greenhouse gases represented by atmospheric CO2 measurements.</div> <div> (ii) reconstructed solar irradiance.</div> <div> (iii) weighted volcanic dust veil index (DVI).</div> <div> (iv) evolving multivariate correlation of NH series with the 3 forcings (i) (ii) and (iii). </div> <bR> <div>  The gray bars indicates two different 200 year window of data, with the long-dashed vertical lines indicating the center of the corresponding windows and intersecting the 3 curves at their corresponding values. The upper gray bar spans the window from 1751-1950 (centered at '1850'), while the lower gray bar indicates the final data window from 1796-1995 (window centered at '1895') correspond to the final estimates from the moving multivariate correlation. </div> <div> <B>(Mann, Michael E., Raymond S. Bradley, and Malcolm K. Hughes.  1998.  Nature, 392, pp.779-787)</B></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="04558020.gif" border=0 width="600" height="2" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="permafrost"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <B><IMG SRC="0513bdd0.jpg" border=0 width="315" height="477" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></div> <div> <B>Permafrost temperature chart.</B></div> <div> <A HREF="#permafrost_2" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><B>Back</B></U></A></div> <bR> <div> <B>Compliments of PACE. </B></div> <div> <B>At 55 meters the temperature is just above freezing. </B></div> <div> <B>Over the different readings the deep temperature has shown a</B><FONT SIZE="3" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" ><B> </B></FONT></div> <div> <B>continual rise whereas the (active) layer at top is more changeable.</B></div> <div>  Link to PACE study on permafrost distribution and energy balance.</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >                      </FONT> <A HREF="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp"><U><U>http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html</U></U></A></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="04558020.gif" border=0 width="600" height="2" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <bR> <div>  <A NAME="_rock"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A></div> <div> <B><IMG SRC="0522b680.jpg" border=0 width="555" height="360" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></B></div> <div> <B>Rock slide, Switzerland.  </B><B>Courtesy of PACE</B></div> <div> <A HREF="#rock_2" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U><B>Back</B></U></A></div> <div> Rock slide, Switzerland.</div> <div> Randa rock-fall Mattertal Switzerland. Note the close proximity to the settlement </div> <div>  Link to PACE study on permafrost distribution and energy balance.</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Times New Roman" >                      </FONT> <A HREF="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp"><U><U>http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html</U></U></A></div> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <IMG SRC="04558020.gif" border=0 width="600" height="2" ALIGN="BOTTOM" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0"></div> <bR> <bR> <div> <B><U>Links to web sites used in the essay</U></B></div> <div>  <A NAME="back"><IMG BORDER="0" SRC="1x1.gif" HEIGHT="1" ALIGN="bottom" WIDTH="1" HSPACE="0" VSPACE="0" ></A><A HREF="#other_web_sites_that_were_used_in_the" TITLE="Essay 1. |"><U>Back</U></A></div> <div> <A HREF="http://www.noaa.gov/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.noaa.gov/"><U><U>http://www.noaa.gov/</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" >   </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > Home page with links to all NOAA government sites. </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.maptech.com/index.cfm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.maptech.com/index.cfm"><U><U>http://www.maptech.com/index.cfm</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" >  </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >General maps of anywhere in the world.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.worldclimate.com/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.worldclimate.com/"><U><U>http://www.worldclimate.com/</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/"><U><U>http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > Climate information of US but world climate data base of raw data.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ngdc.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ngdc.html"><U><U>http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ngdc.html</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > Lots of Information and raw data.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.htm"><U><U>http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" >  </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Lots of information and raw data.</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://www.bgs.ac.uk/home.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.bgs.ac.uk/home.html"><U><U>http://www.bgs.ac.uk/home.html</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" >  </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" >Excellent site. Note the map viewer, (URL below).</FONT></div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="http://194.66.252.133/website/gdi_v2/viewer.htm?mainserv=world_v2&Title=Geoscience%20Data%20Index" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://194.66.252.133/website/gdi_v2/vie"><U><U>http://194.66.252.133/website/gdi_v2/viewer.htm?mainserv=world_v2&Title=Geoscience%20Data%20Index</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT></div> <div> <A HREF="http://ltpwww.gsfc.nasa.gov/ndrd/" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://ltpwww.gsfc.nasa.gov/ndrd/"><U><U>http://ltpwww.gsfc.nasa.gov/ndrd/</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > Really good place for remote sensing and related material.</FONT></div> <div> <A HREF="http://uk2.multimap.com/home.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://uk2.multimap.com/home.html"><U><U>http://uk2.multimap.com/home.html</U></U></A><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" >  </FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Arial" > General road maps of world.</FONT></div> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://geography.about.com/mbody.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://geography.about.com/mbody.htm"><U><U>http://geography.about.com/mbody.htm</U></U></A></FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT>  Good for latest issues in geography and related subject material</div> <div> <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#0000FF" FACE="Arial" ><A HREF="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html" TARGET="_top" TITLE="http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp"><U><U>http://www.cf.ac.uk/earth/pace/themes/wp4.html</U></U></A></FONT><FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#FFFFCC" FACE="Arial" > </FONT> Link to PACE study on permafrost distribution and energy balance.</div> <bR> <DIV ALIGN="LEFT"></DIV> <div> <B>END</B></div> <div> <B> </B></div> </td> <td valign="top" width=2 BGCOLOR="#000000" TEXT="#F7F7FF"> <bR> </td> </tr></table></body>